Poem: The Mac That Crashed

The Mac That Crashed

I once wrote some poems about my father
In the style of Seamus Heaney
We ploughed the land and the earth turned fresh brown
We were satisfied
We had tea in the shade of the thorn tree
Sweet, hot, tea from a red tartan Thermos
And biscuits
Chum, he said. Pronounced ‘Choom’.
Choom, when we are finished, go up to the Pot camp
Check the water. And clean the filter at the fountain
I scraped the moss from the fountain
The water smelled of mint
A rhebok stood motionless on the hillside
Down in the valley dust, a red dot
The Massey Ferguson moved slowly
Turning the dull earth brown in tiny stripes
But after my Mac crashed
I lost that poem and the others
In the style of Seamus Heaney

Let’s go back 300 years to the first big corruption bust-up

The Land of Cockayne by Pieter Bruegel the Elder

Government and business tender collusion has reached new heights, prices are fixed, corruption is rife, contracts are manipulated to enrich the most powerful, and honest small businesses are forced into liquidation. The year is 1699.

Willem Adriaan van der Stel has ascended to the governorship of the Cape, succeeding his father, Simon. The latter lives on in memory after naming Stellenbosch after himself. The former lives on in infamy.

Willem Adriaan – let’s call him “WA” – had hardly taken office than his mind turned to how he could extract as much wealth from his position as possible. The scam was simple. The governor of the Cape had control over the purchasing of “victuals” for ships belonging to the Dutch East India Company which ventured to India, Java and beyond, where the real profits lay in spices and silk.

These victuals were procured from the free burghers, people of Dutch, French and German descent who had been granted land to produce fresh goods for the company ships. This job used to be done by the company, but the system had been inefficient, expensive and ridden with graft. The free burghers were motivated to keep prices in check and to improve productivity.

Willem Adriaan van der Stel
looking presidential

I can see you are alighting on this as testimony to the effectiveness of the free market. Don’t. This was no free enterprise system, for burghers ran brutal businesses that relied on slaves imported from Malaysia and Angola and locally captured folk to do the dirty work. Most believe they treated their slaves worse than Americans treated theirs. It might have been competitive, but it was ugly. WA immediately began cutting in on the free burgher action, profiteering on the wine trade by buying it cheaply from the burghers and then selling it on at a higher price.

This profit went towards paying off the debt WA had accumulated back in Holland, where he had caroused his way through high society as what we would these days call a “socialite”. To paraphrase The Eagles, he threw outrageous parties, and now he had to pay heavenly bills.

But a pile of stolen guilders is never enough, is it? It was not long before WA went large. He took possession of a large estate called Vergelegen and, with his retired father and other senior officials, began producing other supplies for the company. He bought his own produce at a handsome price, which he set. When he did not have enough inventory, he reluctantly bought from burghers at a discount.

He and his band of market-fixers were the original one-percenters. Just seven of them owned half as much of the land as all the free burghers together.

Vergelegen, jewel of the winelands

In the words of the historian Prof Leo Fouché , the “palatial” Vergelegen was to become “a monument of magnificence, reared upon cynical disregard of the commands of the authorities in India and the Netherlands, and of the eventual cost to the company and the colonists”.

As is frequently the case with persons in power, WA was a toxic mix of “weak and domineering” and highly indebted, “hence the corruption and venality which characterised his administration”.

The free burghers felt the squeeze and began to conspire with one another over tobacco and wine. One of them, Adam Tas, was particularly upset and, being one of the few among this illiterate rabble who could read and write, drafted a memo to the company in Holland about “de hebzucht” of WA and his cronies. That’s Dutch for greed.

Of course, Tas was no angel and has been credited for proposing the pass laws among other acts of barbarism. But we digress.

Title page from the Tas diary as edited by Leo Fouche

Tas sneaked his letter onto a sailing ship to HQ in Holland. After a three month journey past sea-monsters and other shades of the ocean, the document landed in Holland where it wound its way through the labyrinth of bureaucracy to the in-tray of the Heeren Sewentien, who ran the Dutch East India Company, or VOC. The company was the first multinational and the first company to issue stock and the Heeren Sewentien may have been the first properly constituted board.

The gist of Tas’s unhappiness is captured by this entry in his diary: “The damned tyrant has for years oppressed and fleeced the burghers in an unheard of manner, with the result that they have become almost refractory, and now the impudent slanderer seeks to shift the blame from himself and to besmirch honourable men in such a manner. O tempora! O mores!”

WA found out about Tas’s memo and immediately embarked on a two-pronged strategy. First, he wrote a memo in his defence, in which he cast Tas as “an idle fellow, for to go lounging up and down, and every day about the neighbourhood be wagging a forward tongue”.

More: “With his confraternity he must still be spending days and nights in swilling and toping and feasting and junketing. For of their rustic husbandry would each man dress his table with dishes ten and twelve, bespread with tarts and pastries, turkeys and geese and capons and the rest, until that with these roisterings they did begin to forge presumptuous, lecherous, and overweening extravagances, and reckless purposes and designs, for to disturb the Governor his repose, and with infatuate and abandoned naughtiness to trample under foot the general peace and quiet.”

Of course, that description was contested. Tas was regarded by his followers as “a cultured man, of genial and amiable disposition”, according to Fouché. Of course he liked wine and tobacco, but, he wrote: “It is scarcely necessary to remind the reader that this delectable picture of the farmer’s life as a veritable Land of Cockayne was entirely a figment of the Governor’s imagination.”

The treacherous seas of that time

The Land of Cockayne refers to a “mythical land of plenty” illustrated in Pieter Brueghel’s medieval painting showing persons lying about comatose after eating and drinking too much.

WA’s second strategy was to have Tas arrested and thrown in the “black hole” at the Castle, where he was denied reading material and held in solitary confinement.

When Tas’s memo finally made it through the corporate bureaucracy onto the agenda of the Heeren Sewentien, they were bemused. At first they dismissed it. Then their self-interest dawned on them. The effect of WA’s behaviour on their profits lit a fire of moral courage and they turned on him.

Their response made its way back to the Cape, and when it got to WA, he might have exclaimed “WDF”, which is Dutch for “WTF”. It said he and his cronies were to pack up wigs, goblets and smoking jackets and leave their offices immediately.

Tas was freed and renamed his estate Libertas. For the moment, the idea of the state rigging prices and cutting cronies in on the action was heavily censured. But only for the moment.

The Man in the Photograph

January 27 2018 marked 100 years to the day that Isaac Edward Sampson died in combat on the Western Front in World War I. This is the article I wrote on that anniversary

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Private Isaac Edward Sampson

When Isaac Edward Sampson was a youngster, he acquired a reputation as a sharpshooter. The legend was that you could flick a tickey up in the air and he would hit it with a shot from his rifle. It was a reputation that would eventually cost him his life.

He was the brother of my grandmother, Edna Gwendoline Sampson, a strict matron of the old school, a teacher who was an adherent of the Woman’s Christian Temperance Union which sought to stamp out the scourge of alcohol.

To us, she was granny, who made white bread and served it with homemade butter and homemade apricot jam.

When the First World War broke out, South Africa, a member of the Commonwealth, went to war and young men such as Eddie – as he was known – enlisted.

As a member of the South African Infantry’s 4th Regiment – the South African Scottish – he would find himself on the brutal Western Front in France.

He would participate in what historians regard as the first “industrial war”. Hundreds of thousands of troops would fight from trench to trench amid a massive bombardment of shells, sniper fire and disease, with gains and losses measured in meters and countless lives.

In January 1918, Eddie was in the thick of this industrial war as territory changed hands in a series of heavy encounters.

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Fins and Sorel on Google Maps

At the beginning of April 1917, two small villages in France were captured from the Germans. Fins and Sorel would be held until March 23 1918, when the final German offensive of the war would take them back and hold them until September.

Between April 1917 and March 1918, this ground was held by the South Africans and the 6th KSOB – King’s Own Scottish Borderers.

On January 27 1918, facing a German onslaught, Eddie was killed in action.

The exact circumstances of his death are not recorded in the most reliable history, John Buchan’s The South African Forces in France, which plots the movements of troops from day to day.

Buchan records that on January 13:

The Brigade came out of the line, and for ten days was billeted in the villages of Moislains, Heudicourt, Fins, and Sorel-le-Grand.

On the 23rd the 2nd and 3rd Regiments moved again into the line to relieve units of the 26th Brigade, and the 1st and 4th Regiments followed the next day. The relief was carried out without casualties. When the Brigade arrived at Heudicourt on 4th December it numbered 148 officers and 3621 other ranks. By January 23rd its total strength had shrunk to 79 officers and 1,661 men. On the last day of January all four battalions came out of the front trenches, and were moved to a back area for much needed month’s rest.

Three more days and Edward would have had a month’s rest.

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The family of each soldier who fell received a scroll

The photograph of Isaac Edward Sampson, presumably taken on his enlistment, shows a well-groomed young man who seems impossibly young for a soldier.

The sepia-toned picture, in its dark wooden frame, was a constant presence when I was growing up. It hung in our dining room next to the commemorative scroll which was sent to his family by King George V.

When I was young, it was an image that invoked fear. It shocked me that such a young man could have died so far away on a foreign field.

He had died a noble death. I quietly resolved that I would not die an ignoble one in the brown uniform of the South African Defence Force. As I reached conscription age, I took a stance against military service. I had political motives, but I was also afraid of ending up as a photograph on the wall.

Then, as I moved away to study and work elsewhere, the sepia picture faded along with the threat of conscription.

When my father retired and moved to Port Elizabeth, he took the picture with him, and it was displayed in his lounge next to the scroll.

Perhaps it’s what happens when you grow older, but I began to take an interest in Isaac Edward Sampson once more.

I was visiting my father – then in his 80s – when I asked him about the man in the photograph. He told me the story of his reputation as a marksman.

Then he told me how Eddie had died. The family legend was that, because of his sharpshooting skills, he had been called on in  a moment of dire need. When his unit came under attack, he was asked to climb a tree and hold off the advancing enemy with sniper fire.

It was a suicide mission.

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The guide to the Sorel-le-Grand cemetery issued in 1928. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

There was more. Granny told Dad that her brother had left home because his parents Charles Edward Sampson and Mary Ann Fisher, did not have a happy marriage. They would eventually separate.

By one telling, their father, frequently drunk, had been intolerable to live with. The Woman’s Christian Temperance Union would be her response. Eddie chose enlistment and the possibility of death over life with an aggressive alcoholic.

While I digested this insight, Dad went into his bedroom and emerged with a booklet on the cemetery where Edward was buried. It listed all the dead and provided a map so that visitors could find a particular grave.

Isaac Edward Sampson was buried in the Fins New British Cemetery, Sorel-Le-Grande. Someone, perhaps Granny, had marked the exact location of the grave on the cemetery map.

mapp

Map from the guide issued in 1928 with the exact location of ‘Eddie’s grave’. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

The South Africa War Graves Project lists the South Africans buried at Sorel-Le-Grande and, for a small fee, provides photographs of the graves. I obtained a picture of Eddie’s gravestone.

grave

The gravestone in the Fins New British Cemetary in Sorel-le-Grande, France. Picture: SA WAR GRAVES COMMISSION

The Commonwealth War Graves Commission description of that cemetery tells the story of the changing front in Edward’s final days.

The cemetery was used by the British and Commonwealth forces who buried 590 dead until March 1918. Then, it was used by the Germans who added 255 burials – including 26 British – and then again by the British, who added 73 graves. Finally 591 more graves were added when remains buried elsewhere were “concentrated” in the cemetery. The final line of the brief history reads: “The cemetery was designed by Sir Herbert Baker”.

Also available were official documents relating to the graves on which my relative was listed as “JE Sampson”. Sometime between this report and the carving of his tombstone, the “J” was corrected to an “I”.

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Graves registration report confirming the burial of Pte ‘J E Sampson’ of the South African Scottish. The mistake in the initials was corrected before the gravestone was erected. Image: Commonwealth War Graves Commission

The SA War Graves Project web site allows you to search for “other casualties on this date”. Five South Africans had died on the same day. I was drawn to two of the names.

Joseph Blight of the 3rd Regiment died on the same day and was buried in the same cemetery. Had they died in the same battle?

The only detail offered up by the war graves project was: “Brother of Miss L. J. Blight, of Trafalgar Square, Truro, Cornwall, England.”

other

Privates Blight and Sampson died on the same day and are buried in the same cemetery. Image: Commonwealth War Graves Commission

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The grave of Frans Thomas Pinyana, who died on the same day. Picture: SA WAR GRAVES COMMISSION

The second name was that of Frans Thomas Pinyana of the South African Native Labour Corps.

He was interred at a cemetery in Seine-Maritime on France’s north coast.

I searched for and found a picture of his grave.

The stone was almost identical, with the cross, the springbok emblem and the slogan “Union is Strength”. But the stone bore an error. The surname “Pinyana” was missing.

The much smaller error of the incorrect initial on my relative’s stone had been corrected, but the glaring error on Pinyana’s stone had gone unnoticed.

The motto “Union is Strength” was on both graves, but the truth was that the union referred to – the uniting of the Boer and British republics into a single South Africa in 1910 – had formally established that there would be very little space for black South Africans in public life. Three years later, in 1913, the Native Land Act would be passed, limiting blacks to 7% of the land.

Despite this – or perhaps because of the desperation it and other exclusionary measures caused – Pinyana had enlisted.

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The Victory Medal with its inscription ‘The Great War for Civilisation’

The Victory medal given to all who served bore the inscription “The Great War for Civilisation” on its reverse. But back home racial attitudes were hardening. Within three decades of World War I, grand apartheid would be legally codified.

Once my imagination was seized by the brief life of Isaac Edward Sampson, I began to build a picture based on the little information I had.

Dad told me that Eddie’s three war medals had been donated to Queenstown’s Frontier Museum. The museum was situated on Shepstone Street on a route that those of us attending boarding school would take on our weekly visits to “town”. Popping into the museum to look at the ranks of insects impaled on pins and the animal diorama with its stuffed birds, antelope and predators was a regular habit.

On one of my trips down to the Eastern Cape to visit family, I stopped off at the museum.

The diorama, a little worse for wear but no less impressive, was still there. So, too, was the insect collection.

diarama

The diorama at the Queenstown museum photographed in 2014. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

But the military display was gone. I asked an official where the medal collection was stored. The answer was a blank stare.

From websites and military vendors, I began reassembling the bits and pieces of Isaac Edward Sampson’s brief military life.

I looked into the three medals that had been lost to the Queenstown museum.

They were in all probability the three nicknamed “Pip, Squeak and Wilfred” that were awarded to most soldiers who participated in the war from at least 1915.

I found some for sale online and placed an order.

The three medals arrived in the mail. They were heavier than I thought they would be. They were made back when metal was metal. The ribbons, although frayed, were surprisingly bright.

medalsI was painfully aware that these were not his real medals and that they might not even have been the same as those he was awarded. For one thing, they had been stamped with the names of their real recipients. For another, the 1914-15 Star was awarded to those who first fought in 1915. The 1914 Star was given to those who were in it from the beginning.

His regiment, the 4th South African Infantry, was known as the South African Scottish. Although hailing from the southern tip of Africa, they wore “Murray of Atholl” tartan.

In his book Springboks on the Somme, historian Bill Nasson writes:

somme

Bill Nasson’s book, Springboks on the Somme

The pronounced ‘military Scottishness’ of the contingent was cemented further by its operational attachment to General Henry Rawlinson’s 9th (Scottish) Division. Rawlinson, a veteran of the South African War and a soldier who had been in command in all British operations on the Western Front since 1915, made much of welcoming South African Scots or the Argylls. With South Africans often unsure of Highland or Lowland pedigrees, at times that blending was less than smooth.

I obtained collar badges for the South African Scottish identical to those warn in the sepia photograph. The left and right badges were distinguished from each other by the direction in which the arrow held in the fist pointed.

They bore the Latin motto “Mors lucrum mihi” – “Death is my reward”. The phrase originates from St Paul’s Epistle to the Philipians – “For me to live is Christ, to die is my reward”. Stripped of its religious prefix, it seemed to speak only the dark language of death.

badges

The collar badges of the South African Scottish with the motto ‘Mors lucreum mihi’. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

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Cap badge. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

I acquired a cap badge worn by the South Africans in World War I with its bilingual “Union is Strength – Eendracht Maakt Macht” motto.

When exactly had Edward enlisted?

When my father passed away last year, my sister Shivaun and I undertook that sad duty that befalls the grieving – sifting through his belongings.

Among those possessions was a tin bearing the image of Queen Victoria with the words “South Africa 1900”.

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Granny’s tin of war memories. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

coin

A South African coin stamped with ‘E SAMPSON V V MXII’. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

Inside the tin were the relics of the soldiers in her family. There was a medal purloined off an Italian soldier who had fought in Ethiopia with its blue and black striped ribbon. There were shoulder patches and collar badges.

There was a star-shaped medal from the seige of Kimberley during the South African War.

And then there were Edward’s final things.

There was a coin that had been stamped “E SAMPSON V V MX II”, with the M being an amalgamation of an X and two Is.

The number “5 5 1012” is a mystery to me. Although it has the appearance of a date, it doesn’t make sense, even if other possible numbers – XXII, for example – are substituted.

Also in the tin was a bracelet identifying “PTE E Sampson 9403 4th SA Scottish” with the letters “CONG” in the centre. This identified him as a member of the Congregationalist Church.

bracelet

A bracelet identifying ‘PTE E Sampson 9403 4th SA Scottish’. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

Finally, there was a clue to his length of service. A small New Testament bible which belonged to “I E Sampson, Bedford, Cape” with the date 17th July 1915.

It had been presented by “Rev W Rider (Chaplain) G.S.W.A” in 1914.

The handwriting appeared to be the same on the two inscriptions.

bible

The New Testament bible presented to I E Sampson by ‘Rev W Rider (Chaplain) G.S.W.A 1914’. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

G.S.W.A was German South-West Africa. It now seemed possible that he had been with the South African forces from the start of the campaign in the neighbouring territory.

But why did the first inscription locate him in “Bedford, Cape” in July 1915?

Although I now know more about Edward’s military career, I know very little about who he was.

I struggled to establish how old he was. It became mandatory to register births in the Cape province only from 1905, and there is no registration certificate for Edward in the usually reliable government archives.

biblez

My uncle, Nigel Wainwright, who has researched our family tree, gave me his birth date as July 18 1893. This means he was 24-years-old when he died.

He had a few more biographical details. Although named Isaac, he was always called Edward or Eddie.

He was known as Edward and referred to as uncle Eddie. He was the oldest of ten children (7 boys and 3 girls). He was born on 18.07.1893 and was killed on 27.01.1918  Flanders while up a tree sniping. Attached is a photocopy, signed by his father, giving the date of his death. His parents were Charles Edward Sampson and Mary Ann Fisher and they lived in Bedford but were separated at some time. Charles was the sixth child of eight children and he is buried at Port Elizabeth. Mary was the seventh child of nine children and she is buried in Cathcart. Charles Edwin Vincent Sampson, Isaac Edward Sampson’s brother, bought his parents house in Bedford in about 1955.

The regiment Edward served has a monument on St Andrews Road in Parktown. I drive past it on most mornings when I take my daughter to school.

It depicts a South African soldier in full “Scottish” military gear, including a kilt and tam o’shanter beret.

The figure on the monument has its own story, which is told on The Heritage Portal:

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The South African Scottish memorial in Parktown. Picture: RAY HARTLEY

For the face of the soldier the SA Scottish wanted a hero. They sent Taylor photographs of Lieutenant Thomas Hesketh Ross. He had been one of the first to enroll in the Transvaal Scottish, served in the South West Africa Campaign, was awarded a Military Cross for his heroic conduct at the Battle of Delville Wood, but killed in action at the Battle of Arras.

The Battle of Arras – not far from Fins and Sorel, where Edward perished.

The sculptor might have used Ross as his model, but it is the face of the man in the sepia photograph that I see whenever I look at the monument.

The injunction on the scroll that hung alongside the photograph finished with the line: “Let those who come after see to it that his name be not forgotten.”

Isaac Edward Sampson, you are not forgotten.

* This article has been updated from time to time with new information

If Nkandla was a cricket match …

We pick up the commentary just before lunch on day three…
Zuma is approaching his century and the controversy continues to mount here at Sahara stadium. The fielding side is furious. Zuma has clearly been out on three occasions, but thanks to some strange decisions by the umpires, he remains at the crease. He’s not a walker, never has been.
On the first occasion, he was caught nudging one to leg. It looked to me like he had forced the shot when it wasn’t on and I was not surprised when he was brilliantly caught by De Beer. Amazingly, umpire Van der Merwe, after a despairing shake of the head, called it a no-ball and the review camera was faulty, so the decision stood. All of this while a large section of the crowd, which had clearly been enjoying too much iced-tea, chanted songs and made threatening gestures at the fielding side. My goodness me.
On the second occasion, it was a big deal. He played at an inviting delivery tossed up by Shaik which, like most of his balls, deviated substantially. Zuma got a big piece of it and it was clearly caught out, but to everyone’s amazement, the umpire did not raise his finger. Well blow me down – things were about to get worse. The umpire called Shaik for his irregular action and he was made to leave the field for the dressing room. Well done to our eagle-eyed cameraman for catching him teeing off at the adjacent golf course ten minutes later.
On the third occasion, he was deceived by a beautiful extravagant ball, an off-spinner which moved a long way through the air before landing exactly where it shouldn’t have. It was clear to all that the flight had deceived Zuma before trapping him squarely in front of the stumps. Extraordinary. He was given not out and the fourth umpire upheld the decision, saying that the groundsman who had prepared the strip was to blame! Well, I don’t think that’s in the rules.
Even the section of the crowd that had been singing his praises earlier had had enough and he was loudly booed. Oh, and let’s not forget how Zille and Mamphele dropped him in the slips when they almost comically clashed heads diving for the same ball.
And now Zuma is slowly, almost painfully making his way back to the crease after tea with fellow batsmen Mantashe, who has tried to keep the strike against the fast bowlers to protect Zuma who always seems vulnerable. Well, they shouldn’t have taken that single before tea because Zuma is finally on strike against the best of the bowlers.
But he’s very slow to take his stance as Madonsela prepares to come in off a very long run-up. She has been outstanding today, dismissing Cele for a hard-fought 24 with a brilliant Yorker and Pule for a duck. She has been able to consistently come up with the sort of movement that other bowlers have struggled with on South Africa’s unpredictable surfaces. Those who have a flaw in their technique are exposed by the speed of her straight delivery. If Zuma can see her off, he will surely make his century.
Madonsela waits, hands on hips. This is extraordinary. For the fourth time, the umpire has asked Zuma to take his stance and for the fourth time, Zuma has walked off towards square leg, claiming that there is something in the stands distracting his attention. He is clearly trying to put the bowler off. Earlier he had asked the umpires to examine her action, but they found it was well within the rules. Finally Zuma takes his stance and Madonsela comes charging in. It’s a bouncer, which hits Zuma on the helmet. He staggers for a moment and then …
1 

Questions

Something I wrote on the day of Nelson Mandela’s funeral.

village
QUESTIONS

Did you see it?
The little goat with its stubborn pluck
Tugging at the knots of hillside grass outside your door?

Did you listen to it?
The chatter of the ruffled sparrow
In the last weak sun on the rusted tin roof?

Did you hear it?
The raucous cutlery in the kitchen
As chickens cooked on crackling thorn wood?

Did you stand here?
In this brown mud amidst the striving shoots
And feel your soles pulled flat, stick and then lift?

Did you smell it?
The rain welling in limp grey clouds
Threatening the turquoise huts and the dusty roads?

Did you sense it?
A nation free, loud and rude
Speaking its ever-changing mind ?

You cannot answer now, so I will report.
The goat paused and then sought fresh shoots.
The sparrow stopped then chattered and fussed.
The pot went cold then the flames lit once more.
The brown mud dried and then it softened.
The clouds held back their tears, there were enough on earth.
And the voices rose once more
Speaking the coarse, rough language of freedom.

On the day you were buried.

To frack or not to frack

TO FRACK OR NOT TO FRACK

TWO weeks before he died tragically of a heart attack in March this year, the economist Tony Twine made public the result of his research into “economic considerations surrounding potential shale gas resources in the southern Karoo of South Africa”.

Weighing in at an even 74 pages, this was heavyweight research, which lent an air of establishment legitimacy to the claim that “fracking” would change the game for South Africa by solving its energy problems for the foreseeable future.

Until then, the idea that gas – and the Karoo is thought to have the world’s fifth-largest reserve at 500 trillion cubic feet – could be liberated from the shale deep below the grazing sheep through “hydraulic fracturing” had been framed as a debate between farmers and conversations wanting to preserve the land and ruthless energy companies wanting to exploit it.

The report developed three scenarios. The first was predicated on all the gas being exported, the second on half of it being exported and the third on none of it being exported. Even if all the gas were to be exported, the model predicted as many as 161 943 jobs would be created in production and in industries supplying producers.

But the statistic which hit the sweet spot was the prediction that as many as 854 757 jobs would be created if the gas was not exported but rather used to provide cheap electricity and power to industry and homes.

The fact that this was the most optimistic scenario of six presented; that it would only come about if economic growth took place at levels not seen in democratic South Africa with all of the shale gas being utilized locally; and that the research making this projection was commissioned by Shell, was soon lost.  Contrarian commentators, government officials and energy bulls quickly turned Twine’s most improbable outlying scenario into the mainstream consensus.

From then on, discussion about shale gas extraction would begin with phrases such as: “We’re talking about 800 000 jobs here,” or, “Look at what shale has done for the US which is no longer dependent on foreign oil.”

By the time the Treasure Karoo Action Group published a systematic critique of Twine’s paper in August, the establishment consensus had congealed into a solid, immovable object.

The organization, representing farmers and others opposed to shale gas extraction, commissioned a response to Twine’s paper by De Wit Sustainable Options. It showed how the Econometrix report had been very careful to explain how uncertain it’s conclusions were.

Econometrix had said: “…estimates for gross fixed capital formation relating to the project and downstream activities generated or induced by the project must be viewed as extremely tenuous.” There were several other instances where Twine and his fellow researchers had warned that findings were “notional” and  “illustrative rather than predictive”.

De Wit concluded: “The model is not designed for and cannot give answers on key uncertainties such as the quantity of gas that can be economically produced, the length of time gas drilling and production takes place at any area, the nature and possibility of boom/bust cycles, the costs of production, future gas prices, the longer-term environmental, health and social external effects, and the financial costs of possible future environmental liabilities to the state.”

But, by then, the horse had bolted.

It is not difficult to see how fracking attained this “magic bullet” status with government and business. The two decades since the fall of apartheid have been characterised by “jobless growth”. More people have been employed, but not enough to absorb new entrants to the labour market.

South Africa’s politicians are increasingly wary of the growing pool of disillusioned youth who are a potential recruiting ground for populist politicians such as Julius Malema and his Economic Freedom Front. Although publicly sneered at and dismissed, senior ANC leaders are privately worried about the populist threat, especially since their ally, Cosatu, appears to be disintegrating.

The rapid expansion of social grants, now distributed to some 15.5-million people, has kept this rebellion in check. But this sort of spending cannot be expanded forever – especially if the economy continues to stagger forward at a growth rate of only 2%.

Government has decided that it is going to bet on shale gas and is preparing to allow exploration to confirm the existence and extent of deposits in the Karoo.

It is solution which chimes nicely with its statist vision of heavy industry working closely with the state to create “decent jobs” as the answer to unemployment.

But is fracking the magic bullet it has been made out to be? Even as South Africa becomes bullish about shale extraction, there is growing criticism of its commercial viability in the US.

At the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America – a 125 year old organisation with a credible record – in Denver, Colorado, this week, the validity of claims about shale gas were questioned.

Among the presenters was Arthur Berman of Labyrinth Consulting Services, who argued in his abstract: “After 10 years of production, shale gas in the United States is a commercial failure. This is because decline rates are high, per-well reserves are lower than expected and costs are higher.”

The financial results of leading American shale gas company, Chesapeake Energy Corporation “calls the shale gas business model into serious question,” said Berman.

Instead of drilling holes, capping them and sitting back while the gas flowed well into the future, shale extraction had morphed into a “just-in-time phenomenon meaning that the drilling can never stop or production will plummet.”

Berman’s abstract concluded: “When viewed objectively, it is impossible to deny that shale gas has been a commercial failure in the U.S. Accounting tricks and unrealistic modeling assumptions are commonly used to make the case for abundant and cheap shale gas for decades but these are not grounded in fundamentals.”

Accounting tricks? Unrealistic modeling assumptions? That would never happen in South Africa, would it?

The real profits from fracking in the US appear to be coming from releasing “tight oil”, not the dry gas that is believed to lie in the Karoo shale.

Of course if the price of shale gas rises rapidly, US production will cease to be a “commercial failure”, but then shale gas wouldn’t be the cheap energy source that has been touted.

Shell itself has had to write down US $2.2 billion because of the poor performance of its shale operations in the US.

According to Reuters, CEO Peter Voser said on the sidelines of the World Energy Congress in August: “We didn’t get the results which we were expecting to get in the shorter term and we will therefore have to develop this a little bit more before we can take benefits from it.” He added: “It was clearly not as successful as thought.”

There are clear signals that shale gas exploitation in South Africa might also not be “as successful as thought”. Sasol has been quoted as saying that the cost of drilling a well in South Africa may be six times as much as that of drilling one in North America.

Add to this the likelihood that the state will insist on local partnerships – quite probably with well-connected consortiums of local businessmen – and the costs go up. Then there is the likelihood that gas prices will be state regulated. The minister of mineral and energy affairs has already said coal prices need to be state-controlled.

And, while such drilling operations might create local jobs, it is likely that many of the top level jobs will be imported from countries where there is experience with drilling such as the US and Canada.

Among the arguments for shale drilling is that gas could replace coal as a cleaner source of energy for electrical power generations. But such arguments seldom discuss the impact that this would have on the local coal mining industry, where tens of thousands of miners and others indirectly benefiting from the industry could find themselves out of work. Stated crudely, the Karoo might be flooded with high-tech foreign workers as South Africans loses local jobs in Mpumalanga.

The decision-making around fracking will set in motion months – possibly years – of conflict between government, energy companies and those who own the land on which the reserves are located.

Draft regulations for exploration have been issued and the public has until November 14 to respond. After that, the minister will have to decide whether to accept or ignore the large volume of arguments against fracking that are likely to be aired. Parliament will have to discuss them and, if the processes are completed, energy companies will be issued with licences to explore, probably only some time next year.

Then begins a new and complicated process as they identify the farms they would like to explore on and inform farmers in writing.

Activists such as the Treasure Karoo Action Group’s Jonathan Deal are preparing to fight exploration all the way. “There’s going to be a large volume of public comments. It’s not going to be a short or simple exercise.”

Energy companies are likely to find themselves stonewalled by Karoo farmers. “The farmers have been advised not to negotiate, but to hand it to the lawyers,” says Deal.

By the time the magic bullet is fired, it may be with a whimper, rather than a bang.

The Gautrain

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Gautrain2, originally uploaded by hartleyr.

Felt a bit like it was watching me like HAL. “Good morning Ray. I hope you will enjoy the ride.”

The Gautrain

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.flickr-yourcomment { }
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Gautrain2, originally uploaded by hartleyr.

Felt a bit like it was watching me like HAL. “Good morning Ray. I hope you will enjoy the ride.”